A Crisis That's Already Been Made

Last Thursday's Megawatt Daily newsletter reports that:

There is a serious risk of power shortages and extreme price volatility if electricity demand growth is higher than expected during the next five or six years, according to a study by consulting company Wood Mackenzie.

The record demand peaks of the summer 2006 highlight the danger of relying on reserve margins that are sufficient for average[,] but not necessarily above-average[,] conditons, according to the study, "A Crisis in the Making?"

"Currently, there are not enough power plants planned and under construction to meet demand if the 2006 weather repeats itself," says the study.

Between our continuing-to-explode population and our hotter-than-ever-before days and nights, it wouldn't be improvident to bet that there will, in fact, be higher dmeand growth during the next five or six years. We don't have enough power plants to deal with a repeat of the summer of 2006, much less deal with even (increasinly) hotter summers in 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, and 2011.

Note that the warning is for both "power shortages and extreme price volatility," not either/or. And "price volatility" does not, in this situation, mean prices dropping so low (absent the sort of massive over-building that's highly unlikey to happen) that power companies go bankrupt; it means record high prices that people on minimum wage, old people, people with large medical bills, just can't afford.